IHS CERA


IHS CERA Energy Scenarios Advisory Service

For the energy sector, the birthplace of scenario-based planning, the benefits of scenario planning have been well proved. The ability to anticipate a potential crisis and consider the ramifications of unexpected events allows clients to succeed in an unpredictable business environment.

The IHS CERA Energy Scenarios Advisory Service helps organizations prepare for the future by examining the key forces that will shape the global business environment in the years ahead, and the possible implications for the energy industry.

At the heart of the service is a set of three distinct scenarios called the Global Scenarios Framework. Each scenario provides a qualitative narrative—or storyline—and quantitative analyses addressing possible futures for economic growth and policy, politics, trade, security, technology, the environment, and energy on the world stage to 2030.

Key issues to be examined:

Key trends in geopolitics, technology, demographics, and economics:

  • Global geopolitical and economic trends, including region-specific outlooks
  • Technological and policy trends that could affect energy production and consumption
  • The role of the state in energy matters such as energy security and participation in energy deals
  • Region-specific implications under each scenario for Africa, Asia, Eurasia, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and North America

Energy prices, demand, and supply:

  • Crude oil and refined product prices, liquids supply (including unconventional fuels), world and regional oil demand, and refining capacity
  • Natural gas prices in key markets, and world and regional gas demand and supply, including liquefaction capacity
  • Coal prices in selected markets, and world demand and supply, with a focus on key importing and exporting countries
  • Power prices in selected markets and world and regional power generation capacity by fuel
  • The role of renewable energy sources in the future
  • The role of environmental pressures in shaping the energy future, including a look at carbon dioxide (CO2) cap-and-trade and prices

Strategic implications

Strategic implications by industry: upstream oil and gas, downstream oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), power, construction, manufacturing, and service providers to the energy industry, end users, and governments.
The Energy Industry Report will analyze each of the three Global Scenarios for the various fuel and technology markets, as well as investigate the implications of each scenario for

  • Industry structure. Profitability, role of company size, geographic reach, national versus private companies
  • Investment opportunities. Which regions have an advantage? Which fuels? What are the roles of price and capital and environmental costs?
  • The supply chain. What is the transfer of value between operators, contractors and suppliers?
  • Government, nongovernmental organizations, and industry. What are the opportunities for (and barriers to) the public and private sectors working together for profitability and environmental change?

Key Deliverables and Participation Options

Option1: Multiclient Study Only

  • Quantitative
    • Detailed data sets of historical and projected data points by scenario (to 2030), downloadable in Excel format
  • Qualitative
    • Complete final scenario narratives of the Global Framework and Energy Scenario storylines delivered via written report
  • Online access to research deliverables

Option 2: Multiclient Study and Ongoing Advisory Service

  • Membership includes all components of the Multiclient study
    • Detailed final report with complete Global Framework and Energy Scenarios storylines
  • Invitations for two participants to attend annual workshops
  • Quantitative: semiannual updates to all data elements
    • Detailed sets of historical and projected data points by scenario
    • Updates issued every first and third quarter of the calendar year
    • Downloadable in Excel format
  • Qualitative: semiannual updates and monitoring of signposts
    • Issued every second and fourth quarter of the calendar year
    • Semiannual updates to scenario storylines
    • Delivered via web conference and PowerPoint
  • Online access to research deliverables

Option 3: Multiclient Study and Premium Ongoing Advisory Service

All deliverables from Option 2, plus an annual on-site workshop to help integrate the scenarios into your planning process.

Preliminary Global Energy Scenarios Study Scope

Participants in the IHS Global Energy Scenarios will be invited to planning workshops and will receive a comprehensive written report analyzing the impact of each Global Energy Scenario on the energy industry.
Introduction
Global Market Detail by Scenario
Crude Oil
Oil Products and Refining Margins
Natural Gas
Coal
Power
Government and Regulatory Policy
Climate Change
Environmental Pollutants
Land Use
Water
Costs and Technology by Scenario
CO2 Costs
Capital Costs
Renewables and Transmission Technology
Industry Implications by Scenario
Upstream Oil and Natural Gas
Refining and Marketing
LNG
Power Generation, Transmission, and Distribution
End Users

Detailed Data
As part of the comprehensive scenarios analysis, we will provide clients of the Global Energy Scenarios with a full set of data that measure the impact of each scenario on various aspects of the energy sector.

Liquid Fuels
Liquid fuel demand by product, region, subregion, and major country
Demand by sector: industry, power generation, transport, commercial, residential
(sector demand by region, subregion, and major country)
Fuel economy in regions, subregions, and major country
Vehicle fleet by region, subregion, and major country
Role of hybrids and electric vehicles by region, subregion, and major country
Impact of greenhouse gas policies on liquid fuel demand
Liquid production by region, subregion, and major country and OPEC
Liquid production by type: crude oil/condensate, natural gas liquids, biofuels, gas-to-liquids/coal-to-liquids
OPEC policy and effectiveness
Refined product prices and margins: US Gulf Coast, Rotterdam, Singapore
Refining capacity by region, subregion, and major country
Oil and gas investment policy
Trends in fiscal terms

Natural Gas
Demand by region, subregion, and major country
Demand by sector: industry, power generation, transport, commercial, residential
(sector demand by region, subregion, and major country)
Impact of greenhouse gas policies on gas demand
Gas production by region, subregion, and major country
Gas balances by region, subregion, and major country
Relations among major gas exporters
LNG production and production capacity
Demand for LNG by region, subregion, and major country
Benchmark natural gas price in China, Europe, Japan, and the United States

Coal
Coal demand by region, subregion, and major country
Coal use by sector: power generation, industrial, transport by region, subregion, and major country
Impact of greenhouse gas emission policies and CO2 costs on coal demand
Coal production by region, subregion, and major country
Benchmark coal prices (need to identify price points)
Trends in clean coal technology

Electric Power
Power generation capacity by region, subregion, and major country
Fuel: coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, other
Fuel by region, subregion, and major country
Electricity production by region, subregion, and major country
Fuel: coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, other
Electricity prices

CO2 Emissions
CO2 emissions by region, subregion, and major country

Capital Expenditures and Costs
Upstream oil and gas capital expenditures
Finding, development, and operating costs (oil and gas)
LNG costs (liquefaction plants)
Power plant costs