IHS Aerospace & Defense Scenarios Advisory Service

Launch Date: To be confirmed

The IHS Aerospace and Defense Scenarios Advisory Service will enable clients to anticipate and better react to the future challenges facing the military, defense, and national security sectors. Our scenarios will focus on technological, budgetary, as well as industry trends that will drive key changes in these communities.

By developing a nuanced understanding of the range of forces shaping the future of the aerospace and defense market, firms can better position themselves and their product and services lines to meet emerging areas of demand and fulfill missions that are secondary priorities today but promise to be of utmost importance in the future.

We will examine:

Drivers Shaping the Future Global Security Landscape:

  • Ungoverned and poorly governed areas, and the lack of state control over territory
  • Proliferation of dual-use technologies and conventional military capability
  • Competition for energy and non-energy resources
  • New and changing alliances
  • Demographic and environmental changes
  • Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction
  • Terrorism, insurgency, and political violence
  • Political succession

Emerging and Future Threats, and Missions:

  • What types of threats and missions are implied by these drivers of future security environments and potential military/security contingencies?
  • What types of new and untested missions are we likely to see?
  • How will new missions and threats drive demand in the global military and security marketplace?
  • How might security and military threats intersect with energy and economic forces to intensify or mitigate specific threats, or affect the ability of specific militaries to prepare for particular types of missions?

Capabilities (across domains: air, land, sea, space, cyber, etc.):

  • What types of capabilities are required to meet the threats and fulfill the missions implied by IHS scenarios?
  • How might these abilities be developed, and which states can afford these capabilities?
  • Will some states seek to develop niche capabilities and rely on allies and partners?
  • Which niche capabilities are most attractive, and what types of products and services could be developed?

Budgets and Market Dynamics:

  • What types of trends and forces might affect the aerospace and defense industry?
  • How might industry M&A activity evolve?
  • How will advanced military and security platforms and systems be funded?

Implications for Governments and Industry:

  • Where will the greatest opportunities emerge (in terms of regions/countries, capabilities/platforms/subsystems)?
  • How is the competitive landscape likely to evolve? What is the role of nontraditional players, including defense manufacturers and service providers outside the United States and Europe, as well as manufacturers and service providers traditionally not in the aerospace and defense (A&D) market space?
  • What is the future of M&A within the A&D markets? Are we moving into another round of consolidation? How significant a role will the nontraditional acquisitions play in business success?
  • How will the evolution of government procurement and acquisition practices (offsets, export controls, public-private partnerships, etc.) affect the A&D market space?
  • How might policy and regulatory environments change (e.g., security arrangements, treaties/embargoes, and international initiatives such as the Convention on Cluster Munitions)?

Key Deliverables and Participation Options
Option1: Multiclient Study Only

  • Quantitative
    • Detailed data sets of historical and projected data points by scenario (to 2030), downloadable in Excel format
  • Qualitative
    • Complete final scenario narratives of the Global Framework and A&D Scenario storylines delivered via written report
  • Online access to research deliverables

Option 2: Multiclient Study and Ongoing Advisory Service*

  • Membership includes all components of the Multiclient study
    • Detailed final report with complete Global Framework and A&D Scenarios storylines
  • Invitations for two participants to attend annual workshops
  • Quantitative: semiannual updates to all data elements
    • Detailed sets of historical and projected data points by scenario
    • Updates issued every first and third quarter of the calendar year
    • Downloadable in Excel format
  • Qualitative: semiannual updates and monitoring of signposts
    • Issued every second and fourth quarter of the calendar year
    • Semiannual updates to scenario storylines
    • Delivered via web conference and PowerPoint
  • Online access to research deliverables

Option 3: Multiclient Study and Premium Ongoing Advisory Service*

All deliverables from Option 2, plus an annual on-site workshop to help integrate the scenarios into your planning process.

*The launch of the advisory service is contingent on us reaching a minimum number of client subscriptions. Your account manager can provide further details.