IHS Automotive Scenarios Advisory Service

For the global automotive sector, the past several years (and particularly the past 12 months) have been truly transformational. The bankruptcies of General Motors and Chrysler in the United States, the dramatic declines in auto sales and production, and the policy push toward greater fuel efficiency are likely to shape the outlook for the automotive industry for many years to come.

Despite the rapid changes to the structure of the US auto manufacturing base, industry consolidation will likely continue or even accelerate. Customer preferences and policy options will determine the future production mix. New and yet unknown technologies are likely to reshape the face of the industry.

The IHS Automotive Scenarios Advisory Service helps organizations prepare for the future by examining the key forces that will shape the global business environment in the years ahead, and the possible implications for the automotive industry.

At the heart of the service is a set of three distinct scenarios called the Global Scenarios Framework. Each scenario provides a qualitative narrative—or storyline—and quantitative analyses addressing possible futures for economic growth and policy, politics, trade, security, technology, the environment, and energy on the world stage to 2030.

Key issues to be examined:

Key trends in geopolitics, technology, demographics, and economics:

  • Global geopolitical and economic trends, including region-specific outlooks
  • Technological and policy trends that could affect energy production and consumption
  • The role of the state in energy matters such as energy security and participation in energy deals
  • Region-specific implications under each scenario for Africa, Asia, Eurasia, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and North America

Automotive market trends, demand, supply, industry-specific technologies:

  • Demographics and purchasing power of potential automotive customers
  • Existing vehicle fleet, its age, retirement rates, and resulting replacement sales trends
  • Vehicle sales by type and by drive train technology
  • Transportation infrastructure development
  • Regulatory environment: mandates, fuel efficient standards, CO2 limits, fuel tax regimes, and policies
  • Government incentives for production of fuel-efficient cars
  • Regional differentiation in fuel prices
  • Technology breakthroughs and other wild cards

Strategic Implications
The study will investigate the strategic implications of the listed factor and their evolution on

  • Industry structure. Profitability, role of company size, geographic reach, national versus private companies
  • Investment opportunities. Which regions—and which technologies and vehicle types—have an advantage? 
  • The supply chain. Evaluate risks that could interrupt your supply chain. Plan for alternative suppliers.
  • Government. What will be the role of government in shaping the future of the industry?

Key Deliverables and Participation Options
Option1: Multiclient Study Only

  • Quantitative
    • Detailed data sets of historical and projected data points by scenario (to 2030), downloadable in Excel format
  • Qualitative
    • Complete final scenario narratives of the Global Framework and Automotive Scenario storylines delivered via written report
  • Online access to research deliverables

Option 2: Multiclient Study and Ongoing Advisory Service

  • Membership includes all components of the Multiclient study
    • Detailed final report with complete Global Framework and Automotive Scenarios storylines
  • Invitations for two participants to attend annual workshops
  • Quantitative: semiannual updates to all data elements
    • Detailed sets of historical and projected data points by scenario
    • Updates issued every first and third quarter of the calendar year
    • Downloadable in Excel format
  • Qualitative: semiannual updates and monitoring of signposts
    • Issued every second and fourth quarter of the calendar year
    • Semiannual updates to scenario storylines
    • Delivered via web conference and PowerPoint
  • Online access to research deliverables

Option 3: Multiclient Study and Premium Ongoing Advisory Service

All deliverables from Option 2, plus an annual on-site workshop to help integrate the scenarios into your planning process.